The article was intended as my 'answer' to the topic which is very common in all places where discussions about programming languages takes place: Why do certain ones succeed and others not. I think this is an important question because most people who create new languages want to have some kind of success with it.
"'the market has to be right by definition.' is a wrong assumption" or "the best things seldom win"
I understand why people think this this way. They simply fail to see the 'big picture'. If you only look at certain aspects of a topic you can easily overlook important parts of the reason which are outside your field of view. This is particular true here: If you only look at programming languages by looking only at the language itself, you can easily get a wrong impression. We always have to look at the whole system, not only at a particular part of it.
A often used example is the win of VHS against Beta. Beta was technically better and still VHS succeeded. Isn't that a proof that the best thing will not automatically win? Only if you fail to see the whole picture. Technological superiority is only one part of the whole. Others are prices, license-fees, patents, available support etc. Beta failed because of Sony's licensing strategy. VHS was 'free' and could produced by companies without having to wear the straight jacked Sony tried to put them in. Whole People like 'better things', they don't pay every price for it. High-end fans may hate this, but most people simply don't care this much for quality that they will pay a much higher price for it.
So if a 'inferior' technology succeeds over a seemingly 'superior' one, then there are always good reasons for it. And believe it or not, but this this reason is never stupidity of the users.
"Companies are eager to adopt new things, but the problem is the scarcity of competent workforce."
This is the reason why it always takes some time to adopt new tools. But it can't explain why certain tools never catch on. Remember that the job market is also a market. Unemployment is a risk in most countries and people always want to get a good paid job with good working conditions. So the 'workforce' does compete for the best jobs like the companies compete for the best workers. But its always an optimization process: The average developer has to decide if it really pays to spend lots of time into learning a certain language. People always have to weight the options against each other. Of course this strongly depends on the area you're working in. It's a completely different picture if your working in academics, if you're doing programming as a hobby or if you're working in the industry. If people only look at one of those areas, they can easily come to wrong conclusions.
If now a company tries to adopt a new language, it's like the mentioned car manufacturer which starts to invest in robots: It costs a lot of money and it will take some time for the investments to pay back. Switching languages because of higher productivity also means that there is an initial higher cost for qualified workers and training. But only in the beginning. Remember that people learn their job not in school or in university, they learn it when they do their jobs. Sure, companies would really like to hire experts only, and some may even afford to pay the price for it (like Google in the moment). But thats not a model for the whole industry because most companies simply can't afford it or aren't 'attractive' enough. So companies have to do their share in training their workforce them self or they will never get the personal they need. Most companies really do this. And this is independent from the language you train people in. Some companies are even using obscure in-house languages which are totally unknown outside the company, because in certain domains this can be the most productive way of doing work - but you can't expect that they are able to find programmers with experience in this language, so they have to train them in-house.
And if you hire a 'fresh' Java-programmer for example, you can't expect that he/she is able to do good work from the start. Java may look simply to some people, but doing good work in it isn't that simple either. So the company has to do training and this is the reason why those people start to work as junior programmers which are supervised by senior programmers who know more about the job. And after some years, the junior starts to do good work and can eventually become senior himself. The reason why this seems to look different in other areas of programming (like Lisp, Haskell etc) is that companies which try to adopt a new language are often startups or companies which are in a phase of rapid growth or transition to a different market and need good workers quick. So they pay more to get the seniors directly without having to train them them selfs. But this is only a phase, it will never work for the market as a whole. And this has also happened with Java in the beginning.
And if the company succeeds because of using a different tool, their competitors will notice this and start to use this more productive tools also. This will in turn noticed by the Job marked, creating higher demand for this new language, creating more workers able do do their job in this language with lesser training. And in the end, the industry has again made a transition, even if there are of course still companies who use the old tools for various reasons.
"Lisp/etc. is simple? You must be joking."
No, I'm totally serious here. I know that there is the big fallacy that mainstream languages are more simple than less mainstream ones. This may really be true for some of them, but these are relativly rare exceptions.
Sure, to use a different language, you need time to adopt. But even switching from C++ to Java is much more difficult than certain people assume (and I suspect that those people don't know much about at least one of those languages). While the languages seem quite similar on the outside, to really master them you have to use quite different methods of programming. And if you even switch from C to Java, the step is at least as big as switching from C to Lisp or to Smalltalk. The syntactical similarities between C and Java are quite deceptive. It's a marketing gag, designed to give Java a bit more momentum in the beginning, but after you're over it, you see that both languages really haven't much in common.
Now users of certain non-mainstream languages seem to like the idea that their languages are 'to sophisticated for the masses' giving them a false sense of superiority. This way of thinking may give a good feeling, but it's nonetheless utterly wrong: People don't use Lisp because it's so difficult, they use it because they don't get their job done as good as in other languages. Because of missing tools and (especially some years ago) because of missing performance. The best language isn't useful if you have to reinvent all the wheels you can get for nothing if you use another language. This isn't of much interest for 'fans' of a language, but it's quite important for people who use a language as a tool to reach a certain goal.
If I compare Common Lisp and C++, Common Lisp is more simply in every area: Creating useful macros in C++ is much more difficult using cpp and templates than using Lisp-Macros (which is really a piece of cake compared to C++). Closures are also quite simple, in fact they are very similar to objects (just imagine the captured environment as fields of a class which is created on the fly). What's left? Maybe the syntax, but after you got accustomed to it (may take a week or two) it's hardly a problem anymore (especially if you compare it to the mess, heavy duty C++ template usage can create). In Lisp you don't have to care about memory allocation, you don't have to worry about pointers, you have simple access to basic data structures like lists etc. So if we only count language simplicity I would always choose Common Lisp before C++. So please, Lisp users: If you really think that your language is so difficult, please tell me the reason, why. I simply don't see it.
And Smalltalk? Yes, I've used it (some years ago). It's very simple to learn but like every language you need to learn all the patterns and idioms which takes a lot more time than learning the language itself. The main reason I've not continued using it were: Smalltalk-environments where proprietary and quite expensive at this time. There were only really ugly looking Smalltalky GUI-libs. It was hard to impossible to create stand-alone applications. And the resulting code was much to slow compared to C++ (which I primarily used at this time). Some of those things have changed in the meantime, but if you compare it with Java, Smalltalk is still behind (and it's old. I have the theory that languages make a breakthrough relatively fast or never - and Smalltalk's time is simply gone by).
"What about Ruby. It's slow but it's still a success"
Ruby is still far from being mainstream. The only reason for it's success in a very small domain is 'Ruby on Rails'. And again it's not the language which created the success, it's a tool (a framework in this case). But I think that this still isn't enough in the long term. While RoR can really give you some productivity benefit, that only works in it's small domain. And because of Rubys poor performance it also don't scales well. While using RoR for small scale web-apps can be quite successful, this is only a marginal market. And because the RoR crowd is quite 'loud', it may give wrong impressions on the real spread of RoR usage.
Something similar is true for Python. It's successfully in certain domains, but it's still far from really 'big'. Python also have a big performance problem which limits its success. And while Python IDEs of course exists, they're still far away from Java ones. But the main problem of Python is it's poor performance.
And remember: The perception created by all those bloggers and web-discussions can really lead one astray. Those people (me included) are not 'common programmers'. They do this stuff not only as job, but also as a hobby. And because of this, they are simply 'louder' than the broad masses of normal users who only read about it and do it primarily for work. So academic and hobby users simply have more time and fun to write about the topic and because those people are much more likely to try out new things instead of using the 'boring old stuff', it creates the impression that certain new things (which appeal more to a 'geeky' audience) are more successful than they are in reality.
Some people mentioned Erlang. I think it's to early to talk about it. Erlang really shines in the moment you need massive concurrency - but this isn't really important in most domains yet. But it will change in the coming years and so maybe Erlang will become a 'Big Thing'. But we still need good IDEs and better performance until then: Whats the use of scaling an app to 1000 processors if the result can hardly compete performance wise with a C++ solution running on only 10 processors? Remember, that Erlang is quite slow as long as the program isn't using massive numbers of threads.
"Java isn't slow"
No, it's not slow, but it is still slower than C++. Even if it's in a relative close range. From my tests and other benchmarks (like the shootout) I think that well optimized Java code is about 1.5-2 times slower than well optimized C++ code in general. In certain areas Java can be faster than C++, but I consider this as an exception which seldom shows in a bigger program.
In Java the compiler (the JVM) has to do more runtime checking (Array overflows, Null refs, maintain stack-frames, etc) and this simply shows. Also because of the GC and the jit compilation it needs more memory which reduces performance too. The difference is not that big, but in combination of long startup-times and higher memory consumption, it's still enough to give Java a clear disadvantage in certain domains compared to C++.
"Language XYZ is much better than Java if you want to do ABC"
I know that most existing languages have their niche. But I'm not talking about those niches, I'm talking about the mainstream, about the 'Big Thing'. But Mainstream is something which is 'bad by definition' for certain people, so I'm sure, that every language which reaches the mainstream will always be bashed by those people. Just because it's mainstream and because bashing the mainstream let many people feel superior. Also if something becomes mainstream, it attracts lots of bad programmers. Like every kind of successful 'underground' music-style attracts bad musicians in the moment it starts to become mainstream which then start to produce more and more crap.
"IDEs and libraries followed Java, not the other way around"
Java 1 wasn't really used much and Java really started to catch on maybe from 1.2 upwards. The original idea of sun was to use Java applets to revive the server market which was crumbling because the desktop PC seemed to win. This haven't worked out (main reason was MS which fought back) and so they decided to switch to the server market instead (because of the now more and more successful Internet). Now Java could really start to gain market share and this was around 1999 with Java 1.2. At this time good Java IDEs where already available (NetBeans and VS integration) and IDEA (which later was copied heavily by Eclipse and Netbeans) was on the market around 2000. Creating an IDE for a 'new language' was of course risky, but if you want to make money finding niches is a good idea, even if you always have the risk that the language won't catch on as hoped.
But I think that Sun did a very good job in "bootstrapping Java". They provided comprehensive libs, tools, documentation etc. People or companies who want to make their language a success should take a good look at it.
"The real reason are network effects"
True, this can lead to the eventual success of a language and it's of course necessary in the end. But to make a language a success we first need tools, libs and docs. All those can created by several methods: By the language creator, by the community or by a 3rd party which is interested in promoting the language. Independent developed languages mostly use the 'community method' because the creator of the language isn't able to create all the necessary infrastructure himself. But first you need to have a community and for this you need something to attract them. And you need to attract the 'right' community. Having one which creates lots of 'tempest in a teacup' may work to let people notice your language, but in the end you need a community which actively creates libs, tools and docs or your language will fail.
But in the end network effects aren't so important for programming languages. It's much more important for libraries, interfaces, operating systems or hardware. A programming language is highly invisible: If you have created a product, nobody really cares in which language it was written as long as it does what it should do. Now you may argue, that network effects are more important in maintenance of a program. But I doubt this: Maintaining a product requires often much more time for the maintenance programmer to get to know the program good enough do do its maintenance thing, than it would take to get to learn a new programming language.
"Lisp and Smalltalk have IDEs too"
Sure. I've never implied, that a IDE is the one and only thing required to make a language successful. But it can help a lot. How much depends on the language. For Java an IDE is probably more important than for Ruby - but even Ruby can really profit from a good IDE. That Lisp and Smalltalk haven't succeeded has other reasons.
"Java isn't that productive"
Those big frameworks like J2EE may look a over-engineered today, but remember the time those frameworks where created. There were reasons for it. Of course many mistakes have been made, but that's because this stuff was quite new at those times. Now you may say 'Look how much crap it all is', but this is always easy if you have the advantage of knowing the outcome. Also many of the concepts of worked out well - and those are now integrated into many newer systems, Java based or based on other languages. Of course we've not reached end of history. There will be new systems, new languages and new frameworks, and people in 10 years will laugh about the stuff we call 'high-level' today. Thats natural.
Java was quite productive in the past and it still is. Sure, in certain domains you can even be more productive, for example by using RoR. But what if you expect the system to grow? Can you still recommend RoR then? What if you have to integrate legacy applications or huge data-bases which can't be easily refactored? Then RoR isn't as useful anymore. Similar things are true for many other systems. Java may be the least common denominator, but it works in a very broad range of domains. You may find a better solution in each of those domains, but what if your project touches more than one of those? Or if you're not sure, how you have to scale and extend if afterwards? So it's totally understandable if people choose to use solutions which may be not optimal in one domain but can work in all directions you have to travel later without the need to reimplementing the whole system (that's also the main reason why many people like platform independence so much).
There are lots of 'benchmarks' which try to measure productivity. But all those have one thing in common: They use simple toy examples instead of big real-world ones. And because of this they aren't useful if you need to decide what language to use for your big real-world project.
And people don't like to use many languages at once. It makes life harder and reduce productivity because of all of the additional interfacing you have to do. So if you start a project you choose the language which is overall the best fit and not one which is optimal only for a certain part of the project.
"There are big sites which don't use Java"
Sure. Why not. But having a big site doesn't mean that the language used to implement it has to be mainstream. It's like saying "XYZ has won the Formula 1-WM so XYZ must be the best car manufacturer".
"[This article] explains exactly why people use inferior programming languages, even though the intent was to say that they don't."
The intent of the article was to show that choosing a programming language not only depends on the language, but also on the whole infrastructure. Only looking at the language is like only looking at the engine if you want to choose the right car. So you can buy a car with an inferior engine and still get the best overall product. So people may use an inferior language but still use the superior system.
"People only use Java because they are forced to"
While I have to use Java for certain things because of external constraints in the moment, I'm free to choose the language I want for lots of other things. But despite having tried out lots of different languages, I always fall back to Java. I don't even like the language much because of all the well known limitations, but the system as a whole is still hard to beat. This may of course change in the future. Maybe even tomorrow. But I'm talking about the 'now and here', not about promises which may or may not be fulfilled sometimes.
"It's all the fault of those evil managers"
This is a very subjective view. It's true in certain very big companies, but loses its validity in smaller ones. Of course the 'manager' is always the 'bad guy' to a programmer. Like parents are often the 'bad guys' to the children because they have to order them around. But companies have hierarchical structures because they work best (at least until now, otherwise other structures had succeeded in the past). And this means that nearly every person in a company is ordered around by some other person. And of course mistakes will be made in this process. But everyone who knows it better has the freedom to build his/her own company. Just do it and you will start to experience constraints you may never thought of, when you worked as a programmer. Managers have those constraints too and they also have to live with them.
There are ways to overcome this, but this means that programmers have to 'face reality' and can't only concentrate on programming anymore. But this would also make them less productive as programmers and in the end this may be the reason why we have this separation between management and development. It may be a bad solution, but other solutions seems to work out even worse.
"The article is badly written, the grammar is poor"
Sorry, but I'm not going to write my articles in German and hire a professional translator to translate them into good English. I do my best, incl. using a spell checker to correct mistakes, but English really isn't a language which is easy to master (like probably every natural language). I would really like to see Esperanto or Lojban as 'world-language' instead (to level out the playing field), but in the moment it's English and the native speakers simply have to bear with us non-natives.
To come to an end: It may be possible, that in this moment, Java isn't the most productive language anymore. We will only know this in some years, but it's impossible to know today. And yes, in certain domains Java is for sure not the most productive language - and maybe never was. But that's not the point. The point is that most companies and programmers use Java, because it is (or at least was in the near past) the best overall solution for most programming tasks. If you really think that 'your' language is the 'next big thing' then ask yourself the following questions:
- Can my language compete with Java productivity wise if Java is used by a good Java developer using all the available tools and libs?
- Can my language compete with Java not only in a single domain, but in most domains important to general programming today?
- Has my language comprehensive, easy available documentation which is directed at everyday-use and not only for beginner or 'esoteric' stuff? Which has both concise parts for reference purposes and also explains concrete usage for learning purposes.
- Has my language a GUI lib which enables me to creates good looking GUIs which can compete with professional software at least on the main platforms (Windows, Mac, Linux - ordered by importance)?
- Can I write code which is fast enough to use my program on a bigger scale or use it on the desktop.
If one of the answers is 'no', 'your' language can still become a success, but if there are more no's, it's highly improbable, even if the language is full of cute concepts, has a beautiful syntax and is a pleasure to use.